News May 2010
As the election campaign enters its final day, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg are desperately trying to win over undecided voters ahead of what is expected to be the closest election in years.
A few weeks ago I launched my own Election Poll on LinkedIn entitled “What do you think will be the result of the UK General Election in May”. The results of this survey showed an equal share 44% for Conservative Majority and Hung Parliament. http://polls.linkedin.com/poll-results/85093/sbypl
Rather than quote the usual opinion polls which have significant inbuilt variances, I took a look at the people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is. Today’s Ladbrokes odds are not too dissimilar to our own poll results. Twenty-four hours before the 2010 General Election, Ladbrokes are giving the following odds –
- Overall majority Conservatives - evens
- Overall majority Labour– 33/1
- Overall majority Liberal Democrats – 50/1
- No overall majority/hung parliament – 4/5
So, who will win the most seats? Ladbrokes odds are as follows –
- Conservatives 300-349 most likely 315 (That’s 11 short of an overall majority)
- Labour 200-224 most likely 210
- Liberal Democrat 80-89 most likely 89
- Other would therefore most likely be 36 seats
In terms of voting turnout, Ladbrokes current favourite is the likely turnout of over 70%. What really did surprise me when taking a look at the rest of the General Election odds is that Gordon Brown is 4/6 to resign before midnight on Friday 7th May and the joint favourites for the next Home Secretary are Chris Grayling and Nick Clegg, both at 4/1! Who would have guessed that a month ago?
After campaigning through the night, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg will be hoping that they have done enough to ensure they get as many votes as possible. All we can do now is to wait for the outcome on Thursday night, but from these results we can be quite sure that what we will be seeing is either a Conservative win or a Hung Parliament.
